China's CO2 Emissions Have Now Been Flat or Falling for 21 Months as Clean Energy Surges

China accounts for roughly a third of global carbon dioxide emissions, so what happens to its output shapes the entire planet's climate trajectory. That makes a February 12, 2026 analysis by Carbon Brief notable: the country's CO2 emissions fell 0.3% in 2025 and have now been "flat or falling" for 21 consecutive months, dating back to March 2024. The author, Lauri Myllyvirta of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, attributes the shift to a decisive factor — clean energy is finally growing faster than electricity demand.

The numbers tell the story. In 2025, solar power output jumped 43% year-on-year, wind rose 14% and nuclear grew 8%. Together those three low-carbon sources supplied about 530 terawatt-hours of new generation, enough to cover the entire 520-terawatt-hour increase in the country's electricity demand. For the first time, in other words, China met its growing power needs without burning more coal. Emissions fell across most major sectors, including power (-1.5%), transport (-3%), metals (-3%) and building materials (-7%).

“That makes a February 12, 2026 analysis by Carbon Brief notable: the country's CO2 emissions fell 0.”

This is meaningful because previous dips in China's emissions came during economic slowdowns. This time, the decline is being driven by the structural buildout of clean energy rather than weak growth — exactly the kind of decoupling that climate scientists have long hoped to see in the world's biggest emitter.

The caveats are real and the analysis is candid about them. One sector bucked the trend: chemicals emissions rose 12%, driven by higher coal and oil use; without that increase, total emissions would have fallen by about 2%. More importantly, China's emissions remain only marginally below their early-2024 peak, so a modest rebound could still push them to a new record. Whether this becomes a lasting structural decline depends on continued clean-energy expansion and policy commitment to 2030 targets. Still, after years of relentless increases, the prospect that the world's largest emitter may have reached a turning point is one of the most consequential pieces of climate news in years.